SearchGPT vs. Google: Will SearchGPT overtake Google in search?

For decades, Google has held an unshakable grip on search. But today, competitors from the AI frontier, particularly ChatGPT, are challenging that dominance. Could SearchGPT emerge as the primary source for information, edging out even Google’s massive reach? The potential disruption cannot be overlooked, with ChatGPT amassing 200 million active users in just three years. As players like Meta and possibly Apple enter the arena, Google faces a crowded stage.

Google’s current challenge is balancing its traditional search model with the demand for conversational AI. Adapt too quickly, and Google risks compromising its core product; move too slowly, and Google risks losing ground to innovators. The search engine giant faces a rare dilemma, putting it on the defensive in an industry it once defined.

Here, we’ll analyze whether such a shift could be on the horizon, how evolving user habits might play into it, and whether Google’s extensive ecosystem will be enough to fend off these ambitious challengers.

The problem with Google

For years, Google’s dominance in search seemed secure, but each algorithm update reveals growing cracks. Changes intended to refine search too often backfire, leaving businesses struggling with sudden traffic losses. March's core updates are a prime example, as many sites were sidelined in favor of platforms like Reddit and Quora.

• Read about this in my thought pieces on the big deal about user-generated content and the impact of AI on top-funnel content.

In response to competition from AI, Google introduced its generative AI search features, known as AI Overviews. This update complicates the situation further, as it discourages users from visiting external websites by embedding answers directly in the search results.

While this move recognizes the potential of AI, it risks alienating website owners and decreasing organic traffic, which is fundamental to Google's business model. Moreover, the feature sometimes provides inaccurate results, leading to public criticism across various platforms.

Due to growing frustration with Google, many users were actively seeking alternatives, resulting in a massive adoption of Perplexity.

As of July 2024, Perplexity's search platform handled approximately 250 million queries, a remarkable increase from the 500 million queries processed throughout all of 2023. The company is projected to achieve annual revenues of $35 million this year, a substantial rise from its earlier expectation of only $5 million. This growth follows a recent funding round of $250 million, which has tripled its valuation from $1 billion to $3 billion.

A lesson from history: Revisiting the tombstones of search engines

The history of search is full of giants who seemed untouchable—until they weren’t. Yahoo was once a popular search engine, yet Google eclipsed it with user-friendly infrastructure and innovative algorithms. While Yahoo couldn't keep up, Google solidified its brand and became synonymous with searching for information.

Another telling example is the decline of the Yellow Pages. Despite attempts to adapt, Yellow Pages couldn’t match the appeal of online search, especially as digital advertising emerged. By the late 2010s, print directories had faded into near-obscurity, replaced by search engines that offered targeted, cost-effective solutions. Google may have learned from these examples, but could SearchGPT or a similar AI-powered tool drive the next big shift?

As the product adoption curve shows, every product reaches a point where early adopters transition into mainstream users. We may be on the brink of a shift where a new way of searching is about to enter the mainstream — Or are we?

Why is SearchGPT unique?

What sets SearchGPT apart from Google? Its strength lies in simplicity and convenience. Rather than sifting through multiple links or piecing information together, users receive direct, conversational answers. Imagine how easy it is to ask ChatGPT for quick solutions to routine SaaS issues, like predicting server costs. In moments where simplicity is key, ChatGPT—and, by extension, SearchGPT—wins out.

Powered by Bing’s live feed, SearchGPT delivers contextually relevant, real-time responses. Users can even ask follow-up questions, creating a conversational flow that traditional search engines lack.

Users often favor the path of least resistance. Instead of juggling multiple tabs, they can ask SearchGPT a follow-up question and get an immediate, precise answer. This aligns with the trend toward digital convenience, as more people expect swift, frictionless interactions.

This preference for “effortless” solutions is not a flaw but a key feature. Today’s users value efficiency, gravitating toward platforms that eliminate unnecessary steps and deliver results in seconds. SearchGPT captures this demand, offering a more personalized, streamlined search experience.

But can SearchGPT overtake Google?

Hmmm…

The current situation is similar to other recent disruptions: TikTok is outpacing YouTube among younger users, and Blockbuster faded in the face of Netflix’s disruption. Major shifts often come down to new habits, slowly replacing old ones with simplicity and ease at the core of the transition.

While user habits don’t change overnight, the need for speed and personalization could propel AI-based search ahead. However, Google still commands a massive ecosystem spanning Gmail, Chrome, YouTube, the Android OS, and more, reinforcing user loyalty.

Google is fully integrated into every internet user’s daily life, creating a barrier to instant change. Therefore, switching from Google will almost feel like adopting a new way of navigating information. Replacing this deeply ingrained behavior could take years, if not longer. But this is only the tip of the iceberg...

Barriers to SearchGPT’s takeover

Besides Google being deeply entrenched in our online experiences, SearchGPT may face formidable obstacles, including:

• Paid model: SearchGPT’s paid subscription can deter users accustomed to Google’s free services. This paywall may restrict its reach, especially as most search engines remain accessible at no cost.

• LLMs business is a cost center: Running large language models (LLMs) is expensive. SearchGPT will need a sustainable way to monetize beyond subscriptions if it wants to scale.

• Not every tech innovation disrupts the market: Remember the initial excitement around blockchain or voice search? Both struggled to gain mainstream traction despite high initial expectations. The technology either didn’t deliver the promised improvements or was pushed prematurely.

For all it's worth, “Google it” has become a standard verb that implies searching for an answer. Ask a relative outside tech circles if they use GPT for search, and you’ll likely hear a resounding no. For many users, Google remains a one-stop shop for online queries.

SearchGPT might be a game-changer for those in the know, but widespread adoption faces a hurdle. User familiarity and inertia favor Google, and until SearchGPT bridges this gap, its potential remains limited to a subset of the population.

In addition, Google has never stopped innovating

Despite all the backlash, Google seems committed to its AI search initiative. Recent additions like "Grounding with Google Search" and the "Gemini API" aim to improve accuracy and provide timely information. New features, like Compare Mode, allow users to view results with and without grounding, offering transparency and supporting Google’s shift toward AI.

In Q3 2024, Google reported earnings of over $87.8 billion, a significant increase from the $76.3 billion reported a year prior. During the earnings call, Google hinted at future AI-driven enhancements to Search, including Project Astra—an upcoming AI assistant that processes multimodal information, understands context, and can engage in natural conversations. Project Astra, slated for a 2025 launch, promises to reshape user interactions with Google’s search ecosystem.

Furthermore, AI Overviews are now expanding to more than 100 countries, reinforcing Google’s commitment to AIO as Google claims "strong engagement with AI Overviews" for both organic and ads.

The future of search and AI

With AI dominance in the conversation, search as we know it will shift from keyword-based results to intent-based responses. Rather than delivering a list of links, AI responds with tailored answers, adding unprecedented value. Yet, Google isn’t sitting a duck; its AI Overviews show its commitment to staying relevant.

As AI reshapes search, Google may maintain its stronghold, but its dominance could shrink (coupled with the numerous anti-trust suits they’re fighting). Meanwhile, tools like SearchGPT will push Google to refine its AI approach, offering more personalized and responsive solutions. Whatever lies ahead, keeping content relevant will remain key for brands.

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